Home Sales Are Down — So Why Are Prices at an All-Time High?

It might sound strange: Fewer homes are selling, yet prices are still climbing. If you’re watching the real estate market in Bend or anywhere in Central Oregon, you might be wondering—how does that make sense?

Here’s a look at why home sales are slowing down… while prices are staying high (or even rising).

1. Low Inventory Is Driving the Market

Despite fewer buyers making moves, there are even fewer homes for sale. That tight supply is what’s keeping home prices up.

👉 Think of it this way: If there are only five homes for sale in a neighborhood and one or two people still want to buy, sellers have the advantage—even if overall demand is softer than a year ago.

2. Sellers Aren’t Rushing to List

Many homeowners locked in historically low mortgage rates during 2020–2022. Now that rates are much higher, they’re choosing to stay put rather than trade up or move—creating what’s often called the "lock-in effect."

🔒 This means fewer homes are hitting the market, which keeps competition high among the available listings.

3. Buyers Are Still Willing to Pay for the Right Home

Even though interest rates are higher, buyers with strong financial positions are still active—especially if they’re relocating, downsizing, or have equity to work with.

🏡 Move-in-ready homes in desirable areas (like West Bend, Tumalo, or Sisters) are still seeing multiple offers, driving prices up despite lower overall sales volume.

4. Builders Can’t Fill the Gap Fast Enough

New construction isn’t keeping up with demand—largely due to high building costs, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles. And when builders do create inventory, it’s often higher-end homes, not affordable options.

📈 With limited new supply, the resale market remains tight, especially for entry-level and mid-range homes.

5. Inflation and Cost of Living Play a Role

Inflation has driven up the cost of materials, labor, and even land. That gets baked into both new home prices and resales.

💸 Plus, real estate is still seen as a stable long-term investment, keeping demand strong even during uncertain economic times.

So… What Does It Mean for You?

• Thinking of Buying? Prices may not crash anytime soon—especially in competitive markets like Bend. If you find the right home and can afford the payment, waiting for a big drop might not pay off.

• Thinking of Selling? You’re still in a good position. Even with fewer buyers, demand remains strong for well-priced, well-presented homes.

• Just Watching the Market? Keep an eye on local inventory and days on market. Those two indicators often shift before prices do.

🎯 Bottom Line: This is a weird but understandable market. Fewer homes are selling, but because supply is even tighter, prices are holding firm. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, local guidance is more important than ever.

Need help figuring out your move? Let’s talk strategy based on your goals.

FAQ

Q: If sales are down, should I wait to sell?

Not necessarily. If you price it right and your home shows well, you may still get top dollar—especially with limited competition.

Q: Will prices drop if interest rates stay high?

They might level off in some areas, but drastic price cuts are unlikely without a major shift in inventory or economic conditions.

Q: Is this a housing bubble?

Most experts say no. Today’s market is backed by strong equity, stricter lending standards, and long-term supply issues—not the speculation that drove 2008.