Can I Trust Zillow’s Estimate, or Is It Complete Nonsense?

Zillow’s “Zestimate” has become one of the most Googled numbers for homeowners and buyers. It’s quick, free, and always just a click away — but how accurate is it? If you’re in Central Oregon, should you base your pricing strategy on Zillow’s estimate… or take it with a grain of salt?

Let’s dig in.

How Zillow’s Zestimate Works

Zillow uses an automated valuation model (AVM) that pulls from:

• Public records (tax assessments, recent sales data)

• MLS data (where available)

• Market trends and home characteristics (size, lot, year built)

The algorithm crunches this data to give you a number — your Zestimate.

The Pros of Zillow’s Estimate

• Quick & Easy: It’s free and available instantly.

• Good for a Ballpark Figure: If you just want to know whether your house is worth $400K or $800K, it’s a decent starting point.

• Trend Tracking: Watching your Zestimate over time can help you spot general market shifts.

The Cons (and Why It Can Be Off by Thousands)

• Doesn’t See Inside Your Home: Zillow doesn’t know about your new kitchen remodel, upgraded HVAC, or the fact that your neighbor’s house was a fixer-upper.

• Data Gaps: In areas like Bend, Redmond, and Prineville, where homes can vary widely even on the same street, automated valuations can struggle to be precise.

• Market Nuance: A human agent knows what buyers are actually offering today — something algorithms can’t always keep up with.

Central Oregon Example

Let’s say two homes in Bend have the same square footage. One backs up to a park, has mountain views, and just had a $50K kitchen upgrade. The other hasn’t been updated in 20 years and sits next to a busy road. Zillow’s Zestimate might put them only $20K apart — but in reality, the price difference could be $100K or more.

The Best Way to Get an Accurate Value

Use your Zestimate as a conversation starter, not a final answer. A local real estate professional can prepare a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) using recent sales of similar homes and factoring in your property’s unique features — giving you a much more accurate number.

Zillow’s Zestimate isn’t complete nonsense — but it’s not gospel, either. It’s a starting point, not the finish line. If you’re serious about buying or selling in Bend, Redmond, or Prineville, get a professional valuation so you know exactly where you stand.

FAQs

Q: How accurate is Zillow in Central Oregon?

A: Zillow says its median error rate for on-market homes is around 2-3%, but off-market homes can be off by 6% or more — meaning tens of thousands of dollars.

Q: Should I list my home at my Zestimate price?

A: Not necessarily. Market demand, condition, and competition play a huge role in pricing strategy.

Q: Can I update my Zestimate if it’s way off?

A: Yes — Zillow allows you to claim your home and edit facts like square footage and renovations, which may improve accuracy.

Q: Is there a better online tool than Zillow?

A: Some tools like Redfin’s Estimate or Realtor.com’s valuation can offer slightly different results, but none replace a local expert’s opinion.