Are Homes Finally Becoming Affordable Again, or Is That Wishful Thinking?

When you hear headlines about the housing market “cooling” or “buyers getting more choices,” it’s natural to wonder: Does that mean homes are becoming affordable again? The short answer: Not quite—affordability is very slowly improving in some places, but for most buyers it’s still a major challenge.

Let’s dig into what the data says, what’s happening regionally (including Central Oregon), and whether now might be a good time to buy—or whether you still need to wait and strategize.

What the Data Shows on Affordability

Here are some of the key national metrics:

• According to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), nearly 75% of U.S. households cannot afford a median-priced new home in 2025.

• In Q1 2025, ownership costs on a typical home required an income of about $86,611—about 16% higher than the average U.S. wage.

• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) found that households earning $75,000 a year could afford only 21.2% of home listings in March 2025—slightly up from 20.8% a year ago, but far below pre-pandemic levels.

• A report from Redfin highlighted that buying did become more affordable in 11 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas in 2025, mainly in Sun Belt cities where previously prices had soared.

• In some regions like California, payments for a mid-tier home have risen ~82% since January 2020, while hourly wages rose only ~23%.

  
  

Bottom line: While there are signs of modest improvements in select markets, the majority of buyers still face steep affordability challenges.

What’s Happening in Central Oregon (Bend / Redmond / Prineville)

If you’re in or targeting Central Oregon, here’s how things are playing out:

• Inventory in the region (e.g., Bend & Redmond) has increased compared to the pandemic lows, which gives buyers more options.

• For example, median home values in Bend in one dataset are around $733,000, with a one-year change of −3.6% in some listings.

• Despite more options, the absolute price levels remain high—median listings in mid-2025 for Bend were hundreds of thousands of dollars.

• Local commentary suggests that while price growth is moderating, affordability (for local incomes) still hasn’t caught up.

  
  

So — yes, Central Oregon is seeing some of the inventory and price softening that offer hope for buyers. But the affordability gap remains wide given high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and income growth that’s not keeping pace.

Why Affordability Is Still Difficult

Here are a few reasons why homes aren’t yet broadly “affordable again”:

• Mortgage rates remain elevated. Even if a home’s price dips or stabilizes, the cost of borrowing means monthly payments are still high.

• Home prices, while moderating, are still significantly above where incomes can comfortably support them.

• Down payment, closing costs, insurance, property taxes — all still create large upfront and ongoing cost burdens.

• In many markets, even if prices fall, supply and demand dynamics (including homeowners holding on to ultra-low rates) limit large adjustments.

• Local income growth is slower than home price growth in many places, making it a disparity between what people earn and what homes cost.

  
  

So… Are Homes Becoming Affordable Again?

Here’s a more nuanced view:

• In select metros: Yes — in some cities where prices dropped, new supply increased, or incomes rose, affordability is improving. (See the 11 metros Redfin identified.)

• In most markets: Not yet — the majority of buyers still face homes that cost more than what their incomes comfortably support.

• In regions like Central Oregon: You’re seeing progress — more listings, some stabilization in pricing — but affordability for many buyers remains out of reach without careful budgeting or flexibility.

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What Should Buyers Do Now?

If you’re thinking of buying—and hope affordability is improving—here are key strategies:

1. Run your personal numbers: What monthly payment can you afford? Does it include taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance?

2. Shop smart among neighborhoods: In markets like Central Oregon, consider nearby communities or neighborhoods slightly off the “premium” path to get relative value.

3. Time your buy: If price growth is moderating, you might get better terms or more negotiation room. But waiting too long can risk higher rates or missed opportunities.

4. Consider alternate strategies: Smaller home, fixer-upper, or accepting some compromise in location or features to stay within budget.

5. Use help / incentives: Seller credits, rate buydowns, first-time buyer programs can shift affordability meaningfully.

6. Think long-term: If your plan is 5-10 years or more, moderate price growth plus equity building can make the buy less risky. If you’re short-term, renting may still make more sense.

So, are homes finally becoming affordable again? The truth: a little, in a few places. But broadly speaking, no—they’re not yet fully affordable for the average buyer. In places like Central Oregon, you’re seeing positive signs—more inventory, modest price stabilization—but affordability remains a major hurdle.

If you’re considering buying in Bend, Redmond, or beyond, aligning your budget, timeline, and strategy is more important than ever.

FAQs

Q: If homes aren’t affordable yet, should I wait?

A: Possibly—but waiting has risks (rates could rise, prices could go up). If you find a property you can really afford now and plan to stay long-term, it may still make sense.

Q: Are there markets where you can buy affordably right now?

A: Yes—some smaller metros or Sun Belt cities show better affordability. But of course this varies widely by region and local income levels.

Q: Does a dip in home prices automatically mean more affordable?

A: Not always. If rates remain high, or incomes don’t rise, even lower prices might not translate into affordable payments.